HR: 10:50h
AN: H12B-03 INVITED
TI: Extreme climate event trends: The data mining and evaluation of the A1FI scenario for 2000-2100
AU: * Erickson, D J
EM: ericksondj@ornl.gov
AF: Oak Ridge National Lab, 1 Bethel Valley Rd., Oak Ridge, TN 37831,
AU: Ganguly, A
EM: gz4@ornl.gov
AF: University of Notre Dame, 1 Main St., Notre Dame, IN 46556,
AU: Steinhaeuser, K
EM: 4z7@ornl.gov
AF: University of Notre Dame, 1 Main St., Notre Dame, IN 46556,
AU: Branstetter, M
EM: m3b@ornl.gov
AF: Oak Ridge National Lab, 1 Bethel Valley Rd., Oak Ridge, TN 37831,
AU: Oglesby, R
EM: roglesby2@unl.edu
AF: University of Nebraska, Lincoln, 1 Bessey Hall St., Lincoln, NE 68588,
AU: Hoffman, F
EM: hof@ornl.gov
AF: NCAR, 1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO 80307,
AU: Hoffman, F
EM: hof@ornl.gov
AF: Oak Ridge National Lab, 1 Bethel Valley Rd., Oak Ridge, TN 37831,
AU: Buja, L
EM: southern@ucar.edu
AF: NCAR, 1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO 80307,
AB: We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000- 2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1860 Streamflow
DE: 1876 Water budgets
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2008 Fall Meeting